The Road to 270: A Look at the Map Five Weeks Before the Election

This is the first in a series I will be doing every week from now until Election Day. The following map shows the race as it stands right now, and divides the 50 states into three categories: McCain (Red), Obama (Blue), and Swing (Yellow).


I’ve allocated states for John McCain and Barack Obama based on traditional and current voting trends and demographics. As always, the swing states – by my count, the 16 states which can go in favor of either candidate on Election Day – will determine which candidate wins the White House in November. The magic number of Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency is 270, hence the title of this entry.

A brief observation about the 16 swing states in this year’s race: many of them are perennially up for grabs in presidential elections, among them three of the biggest prizes up for grabs: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Their importance cannot be overestimated: two of these states have ultimately decided the winner of the last two presidential elections.

But what makes this year unusual is that the GOP is forced to play defense in three states that have been reliably Republican for decades: North Carolina, which hasn’t gone to a Democrat since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign; and Virginia and Indiana, which were last won by Lyndon Johnson during his 1964 landslide victory. John Kerry made an attempt to pick up Virginia and North Carolina (the home state of his running mate John Edwards) four years ago, but ultimately gave up when poll numbers showed both states to be out of reach.

Montana is also a remote possibility as a swing state, although recent polls have the state leaning toward McCain. But the Democrats have had a bit of a resurgence at the state level in recent years. Historically, Bill Clinton won the state back in 1992, but he had help from Ross Perot, who siphoned off votes that might have otherwise gone to the incumbent president George H.W. Bush. George W. Bush routed Al Gore and John Kerry in Montana by 25 and 20 points respectively in his two presidential campaigns.

With the exception of these four states, the swing state map is virtually identical to 2004. In contrast, there are no solidly Democratic states (i.e. Massachusetts, Washington) that are up for grabs the way that Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and (to a lesser degree) Montana are now.

Based on recent trends and analysis, here’s what the map would look like if the election were held the week of September 29:


Barack Obama would win the election 291-247, with a majority of the swing states breaking in his favor. There are two reasons for this argument: first, James Carville’s famous line from the 1992 Clinton campaign “It’s the economy, stupid,”, second, the McCain campaign’s dizzying and near perpetual tailspin which began with the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on September 15, which shifted the focus of the campaign from lipstick on a pig and national security – considered John McCain’s strong subject – to the economy, a subject which polls show voters prefer the Democrats.

McCain’s downward spiral has gotten progressively worse with his decision to suspend his campaign, essentially drawing against Barack Obama during the first presidential debate which helped to solidify the Democrat’s standing in the national and state polls, the failure of Congress to pass a bailout package in the House of Representatives, and the Dow Jones industrial average taking a record 777 point nosedive after the bill’s collapse.

McCain would narrowly win Florida and Ohio, two states out of the big three up for grabs that both went for George W. Bush in the last two elections. But Obama would compensate for those losses by winning Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia – worth a combined 32 Electoral College votes, almost enough to offset the combined loss of Ohio and Florida’s 47 Electoral College votes - while retaining all of the other states John Kerry won in 2004.

It's a pretty safe bet that one of these states will push Obama or McCain past the 270 threshold to win the White House. If I had to pick one, based on the 2006 elections, I'd choose Virginia. It was the Webb-Allen Senate race that in the end gave the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate, and it was also the last race to be decided.

Ohio would be very close again, and the political terrain might shift in Obama’s favor compared to 2004 because of Democratic gains in the state during 2006 and because of the focus on the economy, particularly in a manufacturing state like Ohio which has been hit hard by outsourcing and unemployment. It wouldn’t be enough right now to flip to the Obama side, but McCain and the Republicans would have to spend a lot of time and money defending it, because without Ohio it would be virtually impossible for McCain to win the race.

McCain’s best chance at picking up a Kerry swing state from 2004 at this point is New Hampshire. Given the strong libertarian and independent streak in their electorate, and the fact that McCain won two critical victories in their primary in 2000 and 2008, that it is the most Republican-leaning state in New England, and that it was one of only three states (along with Iowa and New Mexico) that flipped parties between 2000 and 2004, don’t be surprised if you see him there a few times between now and November.

One thing working against him is recent political trends. When the Democrats retook control of Congress in 2006, one of the geographic areas where they made a significant amount of gains was in New England, where several incumbent moderate Republicans in the House (Nancy Johnson, Charlie Bass, etc.) and the Senate (Lincoln Chafee) were ousted. Now, there is only one House Republican from New England: Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is facing a tough re-election fight.

As I said in a previous post, unless John McCain or some outside event can fundamentally shake the dynamic of the race away from Obama’s favor, it will become increasingly difficult to stop his momentum and of perceptions of undecided voters from hardening. A lot can change in a day or even a few weeks, as we’ve seen during the month of September, but time is running out for the McCain campaign.

His best hopes are either that Obama does disastrously in the final two presidential debates, or that some enterprising reporter unearths an October surprise that will damage his candidacy that could push just enough swing voters in McCain’s direction. But given that no reporter, or any opposition researcher from the Hillary Clinton campaign for that matter, was able to find a silver bullet to stop the Obama juggernaut, this is not a strategy I would plan the final weeks of a presidential campaign around.

Sarah Palin's VP Debate Crash Course

Sarah Palin practicing for the VP debate with McCain aide Randy Schuenemann
Image courtesy of the McCain campaign, via Politico.

Republicans are probably not going to find too much comfort in reading stories like these in the Wall Street Journal. The whole thing is worth taking the time to read but these excerpts stand out:

The McCain campaign moved its top officials inside Gov. Sarah Palin's operation Sunday to prepare for what is certain to be the most important event of her vice-presidential campaign: her debate on Thursday with Democrat Joe Biden.

...

The moves follow several shaky performances by Gov. Palin last week and come amid concern and grumbling from Republicans, and even a few queries from her husband, Todd Palin, according to campaign operatives and Republican officials.

...

Meanwhile, the more experienced advisers assigned to her by the McCain campaign are accustomed to working with seasoned candidates, not someone "completely green on the national stage," one strategist said. Several Republican backers have griped that the campaign has put the candidate in difficult situations, from sitting for high-profile television interviews to popping into meetings with foreign leaders, some of whom made sexist remarks, said several officials.

...

Amid the heavy scrutiny in a close campaign, Gov. Palin is under considerable pressure to make Thursday's debate a "game changer," advisers said. The campaign is sending in Sen. McCain's debate coach, Brett O'Donnell, to help with her preparation, advisers said. Though he always was expected to help out after Sen. McCain's debate Friday in Oxford, Miss., Mr. O'Donnell now needs to "undo" much of her previous debate prep, which has resulted in occasional "rote" responses, one adviser said.

As if the thought of Sarah Palin going one-on-one with Joe Biden for 90 minutes before millions of television viewers weren't nerve-wracking enough, it turns out that CBS may have more embarrassing Palin responses from the Katie Couric interview it will air in the days leading up to the VP debate later this week. The key detail, from this story by Politico's Jonathan Martin:

Of concern to McCain's campaign, however, is a remaining and still-undisclosed clip from Palin's interview with Couric last week that has the political world buzzing.

The Palin aide, after first noting how "infuriating" it was for CBS to purportedly leak word about the gaffe, revealed that it came in response to a question about Supreme Court decisions.

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases.

There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence.

Now it looks like McCain's people need to give her a crash course on national security, Supreme Court history and constitutional law, and the economy. They will be in the unenviable position of going into the debate hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

Update: The McCain campaign released the photo of Palin practicing for the debate with McCain foreign policy aide Randy Schuenemann after I posted this, so I've added it retroactively.

Also, the New York Times has a story on Palin's debate prep. The following graphs are worth noting:

Ms. Palin has traveled with a briefing team since Sept. 10. Two people close to the campaign, addressing her difficulties, said she had been stuffed with facts as if preparing for an oral exam and had become nervous and unnatural in the few interviews.

Advisers said she was a diligent worker and was frequently up until the small hours of the morning in her hotel room trying to cram as much information as possible before the debate.

I know there's no way anyone can ever be absolutely 100 percent prepared for a nationally televised debate, but is it feasible to think that late night cram sessions are going to help her at this point? This is the vice presidency of the United States that's at stake, not a college midterm.

While both campaigns are playing the expectations game and raising or lowering the bars for the two candidates, Politico has this interesting study of Palin's past debate performances. In essence: she can hold her own and Democrats would be foolish to think she's a pushover just because she's been a disaster in two out of the three nationally televised interviews she's done since being tapped as McCain's running mate.

The conventional wisdom and expectations are in Joe Biden's favor, but as numerous articles have pointed out, he needs to avoid appearing condescending or indignant whenever Palin makes a mistake. A note from the only other vice presidential debate with a female candidate: George H.W. Bush ran into a mild backlash after an exchange he had with Geraldine Ferraro during the 1984 campaign.

Requiem for a Dream

Photo courtesy: New York Times

“Disconnect and self-destruct one bullet at a time."
- A Perfect Circle, "The Outsider"

September 15 is celebrated as Independence Day in many Latin American countries, but in U.S. political history that day might be remembered as the beginning of the end of John McCain’s presidential ambitions.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the federal government bailouts of AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae completely changed the dynamic and narrative of the campaign. While mock outrage over lipstick on a pig and real issues of national security – McCain’s strong point – had been driving the media cycle and coverage, the biggest financial crisis since 1929 completely changed the playing field. And John McCain blew it.

“The fundamentals of our economy are strong,” McCain said at a campaign event the same day that the markets were going haywire. This was manna from heaven for the Democrats, who proceeded to hammer McCain mercilessly over the comment. His subsequent reversal did little to undo the minimal political damage caused by the original comment.

His decision to “suspend” his campaign will probably leave voters at large with a very unfavorable impression of him. David Letterman did him no favors either, brutally eviscerating him after finding out that McCain canceled an appearance on the Late Show – not to go back to Washington and work on the legislative bailout package as he originally claimed – but to do an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric.

“Hey Senator, can I give you a ride home?” Letterman facetiously asked as the show took the live in-house CBS feed of McCain getting ready for the interview with Couric. This may well go down in history as a late night campaign moment, potentially up with Bill Clinton playing saxophone on the Arsenio Hall show back in 1992.

Given the influence of late night comics at reaching the electorate who may not get their dose of politics from hard news programs like the NBC Nightly News or 60 Minutes, having someone with Letterman’s influence and reach taking him out to the woodshed on a semi-regular basis won’t do McCain any favors.

Letterman continued his comedic assault on McCain a day later. “Here's how it works: you don't come to see me? You don't come to see me? Well, we might not see you on Inauguration Day,” he said.

Sarah Palin’s disastrous interview with Katie Couric only served to reaffirm doubts among her critics, raise them among her supporters and the punditocracy about her qualifications to be vice president, or step in and take over for McCain in case of an emergency. Her responses to legitimate questions from Couric were a series of talking points incoherently sequenced together to make something she hoped resembled a sentence. The McCain campaign will keep her as far away from the press as possible after the vice presidential debate.

The only upside from that interview is that it has effectively set the bar so low for the vice presidential debate that it will probably be considered a success for her just for showing up and taking questions. Joe Biden doesn’t even have to attack her – all he needs to do is look and act like the elder statesman he is in answering questions, not make any gaffes, and let her dig herself into a hole before a nationally televised audience of millions.

But perhaps the biggest jumping the shark moment in this two week self-implosion was McCain boldly proposing to postpone the first presidential debate and reschedule the vice presidential debate – having been agreed to by both campaigns and the debate commission long before – unless Congress passed a bailout package.

McCain effectively boxed himself into a corner that left him with no good options. If he didn’t show up, he would effectively give Barack Obama 90 minutes of free uncontested airtime to millions of voters and anger potential voters in Mississippi, where Ole Miss had already spent more than $5 million in setting up for the debate. If he reversed himself and did show up – with or without a package ready to go – he would look like he backed down from a threat he couldn’t carry out.

During the debate, McCain said “If you're going to aim a gun at somebody, George Shultz, our great secretary of state, told me once, you'd better be prepared to pull the trigger.” To phrase it using those terms: McCain aimed a gun at these debates, threatened to pull the trigger if Congress didn’t pass a bill, and backed down. The fact that his campaign had produced web ads proclaiming McCain won the debate, which were released before it even took place, shows McCain took the pulling the trigger option about as seriously as most political observers take Ralph Nader now.

There are five more weeks and three more debates to go between now and Election Day, and we’ve already seen how much the dynamic can change in the course of one day or one event. McCain and his surrogates (Rick Davis, Steve Schmidt, Carly Fiorina, Douglas Holtz-Eakin) have been misfiring on nearly all cylinders during the last two weeks. Unless McCain is able to fundamentally shift the dynamics of the race in his favor, or some outside event does it for him, he will spend the rest of the campaign watching his presidential ambitions slipping away.

An Inconvenient Lie

30 Seconds to Mars just unveiled their new video for "A Beautiful Lie," the title track of their 2005 album. The video shows the band performing in the Arctic Circle and is part of their push to raise awareness about global warming. Check it out.

Ann Coulter Endorses Hillary Clinton Over John McCain

Is the right truly this despondent over John McCain potentially being their nominee or is this just another stunt on her part to get attention? In related news, hell has frozen over.

Ann Coulter Says She Would Back Hillary Over McCain

By E&P Staff

Published: February 01, 2008 10:25 AM ET

NEW YORK We know the far right is upset with John McCain as nominee but this is really going pretty far: Ann Coulter on Fox News asserting that if he gets the GOP nomination she would not only "vote for" Hillary, she would "campaign for her if it's McCain."

She said on Hannity & Colmes last night that Clinton "is more conservative than he is" and adds that in that scenario "she will be our girl." As president she would be "stronger in the war on terrorism" and would not pull the troops out of Iraq, pointing out that she jumped to her feet at the State of Union speech when President Bush said the surge was working (and Obama did not).

Hannity says, looking back to 2003: "McCain supported the war." Coulter points out: "So did Hillary."

Alan Colmes says Hillary would say "no" to Coulter's offer to campaign for her.

But Coulter goes on: "Hillary is absolutely more conservative" and moreover "she lies less than John McCain. And she's smarter than John McCain so when she lies she knows it....John McCain is not only bad for Republicans he is also bad for the country." Hannity doesn't agree.

Why Is This Man Smiling?

I'll give you 32 million reasons... (Photo courtesy: New York Times)

Wow.

Obama's money

Campaign manager David Plouffe says he's raised $32 million this month.

That would be more than $1 million a day.

The Rules of the Game

Rules? We don't need no stinkin' rules! (Photo courtesy: New York Times)

Clinton thanks Floridians, promises to get delegates seated

Posted: 10:19 PM ET

(CNN) – Hillary Clinton held a victory rally in Davie, Florida Tuesday night — even though the Democratic National Committee has stripped Florida of all of its delegates to the nominating convention, and no Democratic presidential candidate campaigned in the state.

So Hillary Clinton won the Florida primary for the Democrats, which is considered meaningless because none of the candidates campaigned in the state because they violated the DNC's rules on the primary calendar. As punishment, the DNC is not going to seat any of Florida's 210 delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this summer.

Along comes Hillary after getting a run for her money from Barack Obama, including a routing in South Carolina last week, and now she wants for the Florida delegation to be seated.

Michigan also had its 128 delegates stripped by the DNC for the same reason, but Hillary Clinton was the only candidate on the Democratic ballot, unlike Florida where all four Democratic candidates appeared on the ballot. Not surprisingly, Hillary also wants these delegates seated at the convention as well.

If it remains a close race delegates-wise and Hillary is behind by 338 votes or less at the convention, Florida and/or Michigan could decide the Democratic nomination, depending on whether or not their delegates are ultimately counted. The Wall Street Journal has this interesting story about it, which I recommend reading. The two states combined account for roughly 17 percent of the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination. Florida and Michigan's delegates for the Democratic nomination, if they are seated, will be divided among the candidates in proportion to the outcome of the primary, as well as the superdelegates who choose candidates as they please regardless of who the voters pick.

It's going to be a wild ride between now and the convention....

Mr. Self Destruct

Rudy, we hardly knew ye... (Photo courtesy New York Times)

Here's the writeup on the Florida primary from the New York Times:

McCain Defeats Romney in Florida Vote

By MICHAEL COOPER and MEGAN THEE

MIAMI — Senator John McCain defeated Mitt Romney on Tuesday to win the delegate-rich Florida primary, solidifying his transformation to the Republican front-runner and dealing a devastating blow to the presidential hopes of Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Republican officials said after Mr. Giuliani’s distant third-place finish that he was likely to endorse Mr. McCain, possibly as early as Wednesday in California. They said the two candidates’ staffs were discussing the logistics of an endorsement.

This information is somewhat dated, since multiple news organizations have confirmed that Giuliani will drop out of the race and endorse McCain in Los Angeles tomorrow before the CNN/LA Times/Politico debate at the Reagan Library. Whether this will be a significant boost or not for McCain remains to be seen, although Huckabee's continued presence in the campaign hurts Mitt Romney more than Giuliani's did to McCain.

According to the most recently available exit poll data from Florida, Huckabee took 259,703 votes in the GOP primary. Romney lost to McCain by just over 95,000 votes, so Huckabee may well have played spoiler to Romney in this race, since they are both fishing in the same electoral pond for social and religious conservatives. Huckabee will probably concentrate his limited resources on social conservatives in midwestern and southern states like Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee on Super Tuesday next week. Whether he will play spoiler to Romney again remains to be seen, since Romney has more resources and needs to be competitive against McCain in bigger and more expensive states like California and New York.

Also worth reading is the NYT's post-mortem on the Giuliani campaign, which I suspect will be the subject of books, dissertations, and theses for years to come.

Update: The Los Angeles Times has this interesting note on Giuliani's campaign based on the latest campaign finance reports filed with the FEC.

Giuliani's $50-million delegate

The failed campaign of Rudolph W. Giuliani can claim one distinction: the worst bang for the buck of any delegate winner in presidential politics history.

The former New York mayor, who dropped his Republican bid for the presidency this week, disclosed Thursday in a filing with the Federal Election Commission that he raised $58.5 million and spent $48.8 million in 2007.

With his donors' money, Giuliani captured a single national delegate, in Nevada. At that rate, it would have taken close to $60 billion in spending to capture the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Dan Morain

Sleeping With the Fishes

Exhibit A in how to kill your career before it even took off:

Hollywood filmmaker Steven Spielberg is threatening to axe scenes starring actor Tyler Nelson in the upcoming Indiana Jones movie after he leaked the plot line to an Oklahoma newspaper. Upcoming star Nelson, 24, was so excited about landing a role alongside Harrison Ford and Cate Blanchett in Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull, he revealed the plot and every major scene to local paper, the Edmond Sun. And now Spielberg is considering cutting all scenes featuring Nelson from the film following his betrayal. A spokesman for Spielberg says, "Who knows if he's ever going to work in town again?" The new Indiana Jones movie has been shrouded in secrecy since filming began earlier this year. The title of the sequel was only made public by actor Shia LaBeouf at the MTV Video Music Awards in Las Vegas on September 9.

I Love the Way You Put Me in the Big House

From TMZ.com:

Paris Ordered to Serve 45 Days in Jail

A Los Angeles County Superior Court judge has sentenced Paris Hilton to 45 days in L.A. County jail for violating her probation in a reckless driving case. Judge Michael T. Sauer handed down the harsh sentence, telling Paris she will not be allowed work release, furloughs, use of an alternative jail or electronic monitoring in lieu of jail. She must do the time!

The next season of the Simple Life, perhaps? Nicole Richie needs to get busted on some charge and get thrown in jail to be Paris's cellmate.

They're Baaaaaack....

Photo courtesy The Desert Sun

Rage Against the Machine's first show in seven years, and by all accounts they did not disappoint the hordes at Coachella. They have a few more shows scheduled right now throughout the summer, but nothing yet indicating a full-fledged reunion with an album and/or tour to follow. Who knows, maybe they all still hate each other? I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything from these guys until some official announcement is made. As long as they don't become the rap metal version of The Who, reuniting every few years for another nostalgia or farewell tour, I have no problem with it.

Sad Kermit

This is funny for all the wrong reasons - Kermit the Frog covering Nine Inch Nails.



More covers (audio only) including Radiohead, Jeff Buckley, Elliott Smith, and Nine Inch Nails available here.

Debate Fact Check: Obama's PAC Money

About 18 minutes into tonight's debate of the Democratic presidential candidates on MSNBC, Barack Obama said "In terms of how we've been running this campaign, I think what we've seen is I haven't taken money from federal registered lobbyists. We're not taking money from PACs."

A review of his campaign finance numbers for the first quarter of 2007 compiled by the Washington Post shows that he has received $3,050 in PAC money.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: The FEC lists the same set of contributions as "Non-Party (e.g. PACs) or Other Committees"

A review of this section shows 5 separate contributions. Four of them are from congressional campaigns. The other is from Locke Liddell and Sapp LLP PAC, dated Feb. 21, 2007 and worth $1000.00. An image of the form for this contribution can be viewed here.

From CIA to CYA...

Look who's about to go on book tour...

(CBS) Ex-CIA Director George Tenet says the way the Bush administration has used his now famous "slam dunk" comment — which he admits saying in reference to making the public case for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq — is both disingenuous and dishonorable.

It also ruined his reputation and his career, he tells 60 Minutes Scott Pelley in his first network television interview. Pelley's report will be broadcast Sunday, April 29, at 7 p.m. ET/PT.

The phrase "slam dunk" didn't refer to whether Saddam Hussein actually had WMDs, says Tenet; the CIA thought he did. He says he was talking about what information could be used to make that case when he uttered those words. "We can put a better case together for a public case. That's what I meant," explains Tenet.

It will be interesting to watch the verbal hand grenades being tossed back and forth between Tenet, the White House and the GOP.

Father of the Year

Alec Baldwin.

Trust But Verify

From today's Washington Post:

White House Looked Past Alarms on Kerik
Giuliani, Gonzales Pushed DHS Bid Forward

By John Solomon and Peter Baker
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, April 8, 2007; A01

When former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani urged President Bush to make Bernard B. Kerik the next secretary of homeland security, White House aides knew Kerik as the take-charge top cop from Sept. 11, 2001. But it did not take them long to compile an extensive dossier of damaging information about the would-be Cabinet officer.

They learned about questionable financial deals, an ethics violation, allegations of mismanagement and a top deputy prosecuted for corruption. Most disturbing, according to people close to the process, was Kerik's friendship with a businessman who was linked to organized crime. The businessman had told federal authorities that Kerik received gifts, including $165,000 in apartment renovations, from a New Jersey family with alleged Mafia ties.

Alarmed about the raft of allegations, several White House aides tried to raise red flags. But the normal investigation process was short-circuited, the sources said. Bush's top lawyer, Alberto R. Gonzales, took charge of the vetting, repeatedly grilling Kerik about the issues that had been raised. In the end, despite the concerns, the White House moved forward with his nomination -- only to have it collapse a week later.

The selection of Kerik in December 2004 for one of the most sensitive posts in government became an acute but brief embarrassment for Bush at the start of his second term. More than two years later, it has reemerged as part of a federal criminal investigation of Kerik that raises questions about the decisions made by the president, the Republican front-runner to replace him and the embattled attorney general.

The Washington Post just handed the Republican presidential candidates and the Senate Judiciary Committee a whole new case of ammunition to start firing away at Giuliani on the campaign trail and at Attorney General Alberto Gonzales when he testifies on April 17.

Pandering 101

What is it about presidential candidates from Massachusetts trying to woo the hunting vote?

Is Romney a Hunter? Depends on What Hunt Is
By MICHAEL LUO
Published: April 6, 2007

WASHINGTON, April 5 — In seeking their support for his presidential campaign, Mitt Romney has struggled over the last few months to reassure Republican conservatives that he is one of them.

When asked on Tuesday about his stance on guns, Mr. Romney, as he has more than once, portrayed himself as a sportsman, a “hunter pretty much all my life,” who strongly supported a right to bear arms.

He even trotted out some remembrances, recalling that in hunting with his cousins as a teenager, he struggled to kill rabbits with a single-shot .22-caliber rifle. When they lent him a semiautomatic, it got a lot easier, he said, drawing laughs from an appreciative crowd in Keene, N.H. The last time he went hunting, he said, was last year, when he shot quail in Georgia and “knocked down quite a few birds.”

“So I’ve been pretty much hunting all my life,” he said again.

But on Wednesday, The Associated Press reported that Mr. Romney had in fact been hunting only twice: once during that summer when he was 15 and spending time at a relative’s ranch in Idaho, and again on the occasion last year, a quail shoot at a fenced-in game preserve in Georgia with major donors to the Republican Governors Association.

On Thursday, with Mr. Romney facing reporters’ repeated questions about the A.P. account, his campaign was forced to address his hunting résumé. A campaign spokesman, Eric Fehrnstrom, said Mr. Romney had gone hunting repeatedly during his teenage summer at the ranch. Mr. Romney has also shot small game on his Utah property, said Mr. Fehrnstrom, who added that he did not know how often.

“Mitt Romney is not a big-game hunter,” he said, “but he knows how to handle a firearm.”

Remember these John Kerry photo-ops from the 2004 campaign?

Kerry's Hunting Trip Targets Conservatives

By NEDRA PICKLER

Associated Press Writer

The Associated Press

Updated: 4:00 p.m. PT Oct 21, 2004

BOARDMAN, Ohio - Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry said he bagged a goose on his swing-state hunting trip Thursday, but his real target was the voters who may harbor doubts about him.

Kerry returned after a two-hour hunting trip wearing a camouflage jacket and carrying a 12-gauge shotgun, but someone else carried his bird.

"I'm too lazy," Kerry joked. "I'm still giddy over the Red Sox. It was hard to focus."

The Massachusetts senator was referring to Boston's American League championship Wednesday night. He stayed up late cheering his hometown team onto victory, then got up for a 7 a.m. hunting trip at a supporter's produce farm.

Kerry adviser Mike McCurry said it's important in the final days of the campaign that voters "get a better sense of John Kerry, the guy."

That means the Democratic senator is spending some of the dwindling time before Election Day hunting, talking about his faith and watching his beloved Red Sox.

It's all part of an effort to win over swing voters who may be open to voting against President Bush but aren't sure they feel any connection with Kerry.

...

Campaigning in Ohio, Vice President Dick Cheney on Thursday criticized Kerry's hunting excursion, saying, "The second amendment is more than just a photo opportunity."

The National Rifle Association said it bought a full-page ad in Thursday's Youngstown newspaper that says Kerry is posing as a sportsman while opposing gun-owners' rights. Kerry has denied NRA claims that he wants to "take away" guns, but he supported the ban on assault-type weapons and requiring background checks at gun shows

"If John Kerry thinks the Second Amendment is about photo ops, he's Daffy," says the ad the NRA said would run in The Vindicator. It features a large photo of Kerry with his finger on a shotgun trigger but looking in another direction.

Meanwhile, labor unions have been circulating fliers among workers that say Kerry won't take away guns. "He likes his own gun too much," says one of the fliers from the Building Trades Department of the AFL-CIO that features a picture of Kerry aiming a shotgun.

Kerry's aides said he spent about two hours hunting at a blind set up in a cornfield. More than two dozen journalists were invited to the farm outside of Youngstown to see Kerry emerge from the field, but none witnessed Kerry taking any shots.

Kerry was accompanied by Ohio Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland; Bob Bellino, a member of Ducks Unlimited; and Neal Brady, assistant park manager of Indian Lake State Park in western Ohio. Each of his companions carried a dead goose on the way back, while Kerry walked beside them with his 12-gauge in one hand and the other free to pet a yellow Labrador named Woody.

Kerry said each of the four men shot a goose.

The last time Kerry went hunting was October 2003 in Iowa, a state where he was trailing in the Democratic primary but came from behind to win.

Hunting is of particular interest in several of the states that are still up for grabs in the presidential race. Kerry bought his hunting license last Saturday in one of the most critical _ Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes.

Kerry bought the nonresident license and a special wetlands habitat stamp, which lets him hunt waterfowl.

Memo to any would-be candidate: don't pretend to be something you're not to try to appeal to a voter bloc if you can't back it up. Both of these attempts to connect with hunters reek of insincerity and they can probably smell it coming from a mile away.

Believe in Nothing

"If you wanna hang out you've got to take her out..."

Some stories are just too good to be true.

Richards Denies Snorting His Dad's Ashes
Keith Richards Denies Snorting His Father's Ashes; Magazine Says It Wasn't a Joke

LONDON Apr 4, 2007 (AP)— Off the cuff or up the nose? That was the question Wednesday as Keith Richards said he was joking when he described snorting his father's ashes along with a hit of cocaine.

"It was an off-the-cuff remark, a joke, and it is not true. File under April Fool's joke," said Bernard Doherty, a Rolling Stones spokesman, about Richards' quote in NME magazine.

But the magazine said on its Web site that the remark was "no quip, but came about after much thinking" by the 63-year-old guitarist.

...

In a statement posted on the Rolling Stones Web site, Richards said:

"The complete story is lost in the usual slanting! The truth of the matter is that I planted a sturdy English Oak. I took the lid off the box of ashes and he is now growing oak trees and would love me for it!!! I was trying to say how tight Bert and I were. That tight!!! I wouldn't take cocaine at this point in my life unless I wished to commit suicide."

The result? Keith Richards is now the subject of two of the greatest urban myths in the history of rock n roll. I think the other myth was a little more believable: that he checked into a clinic in Switzerland and had a complete blood transfusion to try to kick his heroin habit. Kudos to the New York Post as well for the best headline ever written.

Self-Inflicted Wounds

You know those polls showing Rudy Giuliani as the current frontrunner in the GOP presidential field? His stock is about to take a dive.

See this teaser for an interview he did with CNN's Dana Bash:

Giuliani stands by support of publicly-funded abortions

TALLAHASSEE, Florida (CNN) -- Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani told CNN Wednesday he supports public funding for some abortions, a position he advocated as mayor and one that will likely put the GOP presidential candidate at odds with social conservatives in his party.

"Ultimately, it's a constitutional right, and therefore if it's a constitutional right, ultimately, even if you do it on a state by state basis, you have to make sure people are protected," Giuliani said in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash in Florida's capital city.

...

When asked directly Wednesday if he still supported the use of public funding for abortions, Giuliani said "Yes."

"If it would deprive someone of a constitutional right," he explained, "If that's the status of the law, yes."

But the presidential candidate reiterated his personal opposition to the practice.

"I'm in the same position now that I was 12 years ago when I ran for mayor -- which is, personally opposed to abortion, don't like it, hate it, would advise that woman to have an adoption rather than abortion, hope to find the money for it," he said. "But it is your choice, an individual right. You get to make that choice, and I don't think society should be putting you in jail."

Giuliani also vowed to appoint conservative judges to the bench, though denied such a promise was a "wink and a nod" to conservatives in support of overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision on abortion.

"A strict constructionist judge can come to either conclusion about Roe against Wade," he said. "They can look at it and say, 'Wrongly decided thirty years ago, whatever it is, we'll over turn it.' [Or] they can look at it and say, 'It has been the law for this period of time, therefore we are going to respect the precedent.' Conservatives can come to that conclusion as well. I would leave it up to them. I would not have a litmus test on that."

This interview, along with the YouTube clip of him as mayoral candidate from 1989 announcing his support of public funding for abortions for poor women, should provide all the ammunition in the world for a candidate like Sam Brownback. Every GOP ad maker and opposition researcher not involved with Giuliani's campaign is going to go through the transcript with a fine tooth comb and use it for talking points, fundraising appeals, or negative ads.

I have no doubt he would make a formidable candidate in a general election, regardless of whoever the Democratic nominee is. But his problem is that his position on abortion rights and other social issues is often a polar opposite of social conservatives, the people in the Republican base who go out and volunteer or vote during primaries. There will always be arguments of ideology vs. pragmatism, but given the GOP's rigid insistence on ideological purity regardless of potential electoral consequences [i.e. Club for Growth-funded challenges to Republican senators in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island in 2004 and 2006] Giuliani might be shot down by the Republican base even though he might be one of their best candidates for a national race.

Requiem for a Dream

Photo from Reuters.

In what was probably the worst-kept secret in Washington, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was semi-quietly setting up a campaign operation to run for president again in 2008.

The problem with McCain is that he has tried to be all things to all people for so long, and under a glaring national spotlight in an energized electorate, it's all coming out into the open.

While in 2000, he ran on an image of being a maverick willing to buck his own party. Eight years later, he's running as the establishment candidate, trying to create a sense of inevitability with a political machine featuring some of the biggest GOP operatives and elected officials signing on to support him.

About a week ago, The Hill came out with a front page bombshell that McCain had been thinking about switching over to the Democrats in spring of 2001, and had made overtures to then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and ex-Rep. Tom Downey (D-N.Y.). After Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-Vt.) defected and gave Democrats control of the Senate, discussions about possible defections with McCain and Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) ended.

Following on the Hill's lead, MyDD posted its bombshell from an interview with Sen. John Kerry: that McCain's people approached him about getting on the 2004 ticket as his running mate.

The McCain campaign has denied both stories, but the fact that they're coming on the record from three Washington insiders in Democratic circles is not good for McCain. If it had been anonymous sources, McCain could be more dismissive, but given that two of his fellow senators are making the claims gives them a certain amount of gravitas, regardless of how accurate they may be or not.

While McCain may not be trusted by some elements of the Republican base, both of these stories could torpedo any hope he had of winning the nomination. Only in a hyper-accelerated campaign season on steroids such as this year is raising $12.5 million in the first quarter considered NOT good enough.

The news cycle has not been kind to Senator McCain. Between his back-and-forth with the media at large and CNN's Michael Ware over the coverage of the war in Iraq, followed by his visit/photo-op at a Baghdad market, the last thing he needed were two articles that raised questions about his commitment to his party. If the allegations are accurate, the implications - that he was a crass, calculating politician willing to say or do anything for his own benefit - would be devastating to his presidential ambitions.

It's still early - things could change and I could be proven wrong - but I have a feeling that McCain is not going to be as competitive or significant a force in the campaign this year as he was in 2000. His time has come and gone, and he will not be the next president.