Community Outreach

Henry Schuster has a new column this week exploring the reasons behind the popular support for Hezbollah within the Lebanese Shiite community.

Schuster sums it all up in one sentence:

People here see Hezbollah as a political movement and a social service provider as much as it is a militia that delivers the goods for its followers, in this traditionally poor and dispossessed Shiite community.

The solidarity with Hezbollah is not limited to purely religious grounds. Schuster reports that a CNN crew found Hezbollah had moved into a school in a Christian neighborhood of Beirut that was being used as a shelter by refugees and were organizing relief efforts.

The Counterterrorism Blog has an entry from its special correspondent on the ground in Beirut reporting that Hezbollah has penetrated Christian areas in Lebanon.

This is as much a failure of fulfilling basic social services by the government as it is a good PR and grassroots outreach and recruitment effort by Hezbollah. Until the Lebanese government and the international community tries to break the goodwill and long standing relationship between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Shiites by offering them other options to Hezbollah, it will continue to be business as usual even after the current crisis is over.

Hezbollah Sleeper Cells on Stand By?

The Counterterrorism Blog offers some insight into a disturbing potential development in the current violence in the Middle East, attributed to news first reported by the Jerusalem Post: that Hezbollah sleeper cells set up outside of Lebanon with backing from Iran have been placed on standby to possibly carry out terror attacks against Israeli or Jewish targets around the world.

I'm copying and pasting their analysis here, but if you want to read the relevant excerpts of the original Jerusalem Post story, head over to their site.

A word of caution: At this point, there's no source for the claim that Hizballah cells have been put on standby. The first paragraph states that the Jerusalem Post learned this today, but leaves out any mention of who the Post learned this from. Although the second paragraph cites Shin Bet as a source, this is only for confirmation that it "instructed embassies, consulates and Jewish institutions it was responsible for abroad to raise their level of awareness" -- it doesn't state that Shin Bet told the Post that Hizballah cells were put on standby. Putting these institutions on alert seems a wise move even if there were no evidence that Hizballah cells were on standby.

Counterterrorism consultant Dan Darling comments in an e-mail to me: "I expect that Hezbollah cells, sleeper or otherwise, were put on notice that they might be called upon to carry out attacks in the event that things started to get nasty. If you're running an international terrorist organization, this would seem to me to be a prudent move before you engage in an unprovoked cross-border raid and kidnapping that seems almost certain to spark a regional conflict. I've been operating under the assumption that they had cells in place to carry off attacks at least in Europe should they desire to utilize them since the conflict first started . . . ."

This story is worth following, as Hizballah's activation of sleeper cells would substantially raise what are already large stakes.

This is not the plot to an episode of 24. This is a very real and disturbing possibility which if true, could escalate the violence even further in the hornet's nest that is now the Middle East. Given their background and track record (see pages 8-9 of the file), and more info available here, I would not take this lightly if I were involved in any counterterrorism, intelligence, or diplomatic circles working on a solution to this crisis.

Oops, Is This Thing On?

Screenshot from CNN, image from ThinkProgress.

President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair had a rather interesting and candid exchange over how to resolve the current escalation of violence in the Middle East. Unfortunately for them, it appears that they didn't know they were on camera or that the microphone nearby was on and was picking up every word.

Take a look.

Sky News has a full transcript of the conversation.

Straight to Hell

Photo from the Sydney Morning Herald.

So the situation in the Middle East is escalating, and the whole region could be at war with itself if local and international leaders don't play their cards right to defuse this highly volatile situation.

I'll write more about this later, but in the meantime, (even though I don't necessarily agree with everything he writes) check out these comments by Steve Gilliard:

Ehud Olmert, like many new leaders, seek to establish his bona fides by using force. The problem is that the use of force has been disproportionate to the issue at hand. Attacking Beirut Airport? Ginning up some claim Iran ordered this?

The Israelis could be setting the stage for the collapse of the Iraqi government with this, and that means Americans die. This is reckless beyond words. Olmert is playing tough guy politics, but this time, he's got a two front war going and the possiblility of the American Army paying the price.

Israel has gotten widespread support in the US because the cost has been minimal. If the Iraqis decide to up the stakes by going after the US, what does Olmert do then? If Israeli subs take out Iran's reactor, are they going to accept another oil boycott?

Israel has a right to defend itself. But this is reckless behavior with the US on the hook. The Israeli government has been allowed to treat Bush and Rice like equals, and they are not. We pay for their economy and Army, like we do Egypt. Their actions can directly hurt Americans in Iraq if they don't ratchet down their actions. A blockade? Bombing the airport? It wasn't the Lebanese Army attacking Northern Israel.

There is more than a little contempt for Arabs among Israelis and that was transmitted to the US to our detriment. Make no mistake, the Iraqis hate Israel. Israel attacks Syria or Iran and US troops could pay the price.

I know Olmert is trying to show he can't be bullied, but he's way out of control here and Bush is sitting on his hands.

The Israelis need to realize that if US troops catch it in the neck because of their actions, the American public will be quite unsympathetic

One of the things that also changed after 9/11 is that Arabs can't be bullied as they were in the past. Iraq shows that you can fight the west.

This needs to scale down into talks and quickly. Israel could be buying more trouble than they think they are and may well drag the US into it.